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NOK/USD10.82−0.2%
US 10Y4.31%+0.04
Weekly intelligence brief

Global macro through the lens of energy

One email per week. Written by a veteran of the global energy industry. No noise, no hot takes — just clear, analytical thinking on what macro markets and energy flows are really telling us.

Latest edition
No. 1316 May 2026

OPEC's quiet pivot and what dollar strength really means for energy capital flows

The Fed's hold last week was widely expected. What wasn't — and what most commentary missed — is how it interacts with Saudi spare capacity decisions and the EUR/USD move unwinding quietly in the background. When you've sat in rooms where production decisions get made, the official statements read very differently from the headlines.

Recent editions
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No. 12 — 8 May
Why the energy transition is slower than the models suggest
Grid bottlenecks, capital cycles, and what three decades of operations tells you that spreadsheets don't.
No. 11 — 1 May
Inflation, oil, and the central bank credibility problem
Energy price volatility is doing the Fed's job for it — but not in the way most analysts think.
No. 10 — 24 Apr
The North Sea decommissioning wave and what it signals for global capex
When large assets come offline the capital doesn't disappear — it redirects.
About

Capital & Crude is written by an anonymous veteran of the global energy industry with Written by a veteran of the global energy industry with decades of operational experience across offshore and onshore assets. The author bridges the gap between ground-level energy operations and macro financial markets — a perspective rarely found in financial commentary.

Coverage

Global macro and central bank policy through an energy lens. Oil & gas markets and OPEC dynamics. Currency markets — EUR/USD, NOK, and petrocurrency flows. The energy transition as the industry actually sees it, not as it is reported.